Carter’s October Surprise

This is a partial summary of a chapter from Peter Dale Scott’s The Road to 9/11.  As presidential election season gears up anew, let us take a look back at a great moment in that American horse race.

SALT II didn’t get approved.

Bzrizenski wanted to use Carter’s stance on “human rights” and non-proliferation as wedges to attack the Soviet Empire’s grip over Eastern Europe and especially his home nation of Poland.  Meanwhile, David Rockerfeller showed public disdain for Carter’s priorities as short-sighted and getting in the way of what’s good for American.  In a statement for The World Affairs Council, he said:

AMerica’s vital interests have been subordinated to worthy but fuzzily defined moral issues such as human rights and the proliferation of nuclear technologies.

Rockerfeller was business partners with the Shah.  All Iranian government business went through Rockerfeller’s bank, Chase Manhattan.  Chase become essentially, the National Banks of Iran; it’s creditor.  It financed the country and could make any loans it felt necessary.  Chase Bank, through Rockerfeller, made large loans to the country, and thereby, it could call upon it’s loans at any time.

At least that was the theory.  It was a bluff that never got called, except by a few unenforceable courts in Europe.

It didn’t help that Carter had dropped the ball on our economy.

As William Casey was Reagan’s campaign manager, members of Rockefeller’s “Shah” team met, presumably to talk about Carter’s hostage situation and how to take advantage of it.  On 9/11/1979, Rockerfeller and several of his aids signed in to see Mr. Casey at his campaign headquarters in Arlington, VA.


Joseph Reed–Rockerfeller’s private liason for the Shah, responsible for policy decisions concerning the Shah.

Archibald Roosevelt–Former CIA officer assigned to monitor events in the Gulf on behalf of Chase Manhattan.  He also collaborated with Miles Copeland on hostage rescue plans.

Ashraf Pahlavi, the Shah’s twin sister.

Rockerfeller’s lawyer in Geneva.

The Iyatolla seeing the writing on the wall in regard to an Iraqi invasion, authorized his son to approach the Carter administration to work out a negotiation.  After receiving a favorable response, they made arrangements to meet in Bahn, West Germany.  The Iraqis, however, chose the day (9/22/1979) planned for the meeting, as the day to bomb the airport and invade thus deterring a possible quick solution to the hostage crisis.

A successful end to the hostage negotiations before his re-election would have likely been enough to win Carter a second term.  What then, is the relationship between David Rockerfeller’s interventions and the execution of the Iraqi invasion of Iran on that day?

The Shah’s twin sister met with Rockerfeller around that time.  Shortly thereafter, $20 million went from her bank account to Casey’s close friend John Chehene, by means of Gene A. Patry, Rockerfeller’s lawyer in Geneva, SW.

CIA officer, Charles Cogan gave sworn testimony that he was present when Joseph Reed, Reagan’s new ambassador to Morroco, visited William Casey in early 1981, bragged that “we did something about Carter’s October Surprise.”  Outside the sworn testimony, Cogan supposedly claimed to an investigator that Reed’s actual words to Casey were:

We fucked Carter’s October surprise.

Apparently, our worst fears are confirmed once again.  American republicans and other opportunists met with the Shia fundamentalists associated with the Iyotolla in the early 1980’s.  Without a doubt there was collaboration between these groups to the sole intent of keeping the hostages until after the election.

The wikipedia entry for “October Surprise Conspiracy Theory.”


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